Scenerio Planning
Make “What If” decisions before reality forces them — quantify trade-offs, align actions, and reduce surprises.
Forecasts are not enough when constraints, promotions, lead times, and capacity limits shift fast. Scenario planning creates a controlled way to test alternatives — and choose the best path based on service, cash, and cost. I help teams build scenarios that are simple enough to run weekly, yet robust enough to support real decisions.
Three scenario types that drive decisions
Scenarios should be comparable, measurable, and tied to actions — not endless analysis. These three cover most real-world cases.
1) Demand Shock Scenarios
- Promo uplift vs. baseline
- Price changes and elasticity assumptions
- Channel shifts (eComm vs retail, key accounts)
- New product launch ramp / phase-out
2) Supply Constraint Scenarios
- Lead time increases and variability
- Supplier shortages / MOQ constraints
- Capacity caps (production, packing, DC throughput)
- Transport disruptions and mode switches
3) Policy & Trade-off Scenarios
- Service level targets by segment
- Inventory policy changes (safety stock, reorder points)
- Cash focus vs. service focus
- Cost-to-serve changes (picking, freight, returns)
A lightweight cadence you can run repeatedly
Scenario planning only works if it’s repeatable. This structure keeps it fast, consistent, and decision-oriented.
Set the baseline
Lock the latest demand + supply plan as the reference point (and version it).
Define 2–5 scenarios
Keep them mutually exclusive and comparable (same horizon, same KPI set).
Apply levers
Demand: uplift, price, mix. Supply: lead time, capacity, allocations, expediting.
Quantify impact
Service risk, inventory delta, cash, cost, and operational feasibility.
Compare and choose
Make trade-offs explicit: Service–Cash–Cost, plus constraints and risks.
Convert to actions
Decision log: owner, due date, expected KPI effect, and follow-up review.
What you get (and where it helps most)
Designed to work with your current tools (Excel, ERP extracts, BI dashboards, APS/IBP where available) — without heavy implementation.
Typical deliverables
- Scenario template (baseline + 2–5 scenarios with standard inputs)
- Trade-off dashboard (service, cash, cost, capacity, inventory deltas)
- Sensitivity view (what changes the outcome most)
- Scenario playbook (levers, guardrails, escalation rules)
- Decision log (chosen scenario + actions + owners + due dates)
Common “What If” questions
- What if demand increases 20% next month?
- What if supplier lead time increases by 2 weeks?
- What if we prioritize service for top customers only?
- What if we switch transport modes to protect service?
- What if we reduce inventory to hit cash targets?
- What if we cap promotions due to capacity constraints?
What improves when scenarios are standard
Scenarios reduce reactive work and accelerate alignment — because stakeholders see the same impacts and trade-offs.
Need practical scenario planning that drives action?
If planning meetings are stuck in “opinions vs opinions,” scenario planning creates a measurable way to choose. I can set up the templates, cadence, and decision process — then hand it over as a repeatable operating rhythm.